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制高点-第2部分
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NARRATOR： Angry and disgusted； Keynes resigned。 Back in England； he went to stay with his friend； the painter Duncan Grant。 That summer； Grant painted Keynes writing his prophetic book； The Economic Consequences of the Peace。
旁白：出于愤怒和厌恶，凯恩斯辞职了。回到英格兰后，他与他的朋友－画家Duncan Grant住在一起。那个夏天，Grant画下了正在写书的凯恩斯，那是一本预言式的书－《和平的经济后果》。
JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES： If we take the view that Germany must be kept impoverished and her children starved and crippled； vengeance； I dare predict； will not limp。 Nothing can delay that final war that will destroy the civilization and progress of our generation。
凯恩斯：如果我们认为必须让德国非常贫困，让德国儿童挨饿、残废，那么我敢预言复仇将不会停止。没有什么能够延缓最终的大战，而这战争将摧毁人类文明和我们这一代的发展进程。
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Chapter 3： munism on the Heights ＇6：16＇
第三章：制高点上的共产主义
Onscreen title： Vienna； 1919
字幕标题：维也纳，1919年
NARRATOR： Austria had lost the war and its empire。 Vienna was a cold and hungry city。 Revolution was in the air。 Socialists and munists were winning the battle for hearts and minds。 Young and idealistic； Friedrich von Hayek enrolled at the University of Vienna。
旁白：奥匈帝国战败，帝国也解体了。维也纳是一个寒冷、饥饿的城市。革命很流行。社会主义者和共产主义者赢得了人心。年轻而又理想主义的哈耶克进入维也纳大学学习。
FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK： It was during the war that I more or less decided to do economics。 I really got hooked。
哈耶克：是在战争中，我决定从事经济学研究。我真的被它抓住了。
NARRATOR： Socialism seemed to promise a more just society。 Albert Zlabinger； a former pupil and disciple of Hayek：
旁白：社会主义似乎承诺了一个更公正的社会。Albert Zlabinger以前是哈耶克的学生和信徒。
ALBERT ZLABINGER； Economist and Pupil of Hayek： He openly said that he at one time was a socialist of the mild sort； where concerns for the poor and concerns for fairness and equity would help to determine government policy。
Albert Zlabinger，经济学家，哈耶克的学生：他公开说自己一度曾是温和的社会主义者，主张对穷人，公平和平等的关注将会帮助政府确定政策。
NARRATOR： Much of Vienna's intellectual life took place outside the university； in the coffeehouses across the Ringstrasse。 There were informal seminars for those who loved discussion and argument。 Hayek joined the circle of a passionate libertarian called Ludwig von Mises。 Von Mises believed markets； like people； needed to be free from government meddling。
旁白：维也纳的学术活动多数是在大学以外的Ringstrasse对面的咖啡馆进行的。热爱讨论和争论的人举办一些非正式的讨论会。哈耶克加入到一位充满热情的自由主义者的圈子当中，这个自由主义者就是Ludwig von Mises。Von Mises 认为市场就像人一样需要摆脱政府的干预。
ALBERT ZLABINGER： Ludwig von Mises was the preeminent economist of the Austrian school。 The distinguishing hallmark of the Austrian school of economic thought is that markets work and governments don't。
ALBERT ZLABINGER：Ludwig von Mises是奥地利学派一位杰出的经济学家。奥地利学派经济思想的显著特点就是他们认为市场起作用而政府不起作用。
NARRATOR： Von Mises predicted that the new Soviet socialist economy would never work； precisely because the government controlled wages and prices。
旁白：Von Mises预言正是由于政府控制工资和价格，所以新的苏联的社会主义经济永远不会成功。
DANIEL YERGIN： What von Mises said is that the great flaw of socialism is that it doesn't have a functioning price system to send all the signals to consumers and producers as to what something is worth； that these prices are at the very heart of what makes a functioning economy work。
丹尼尔。尤金：Von Mises 所说的是指社会主义的一大缺点是它没有一个有效的价格体系来向消费者和生产者传递所有表示什么东西值多少钱的信号；而这些价格则恰恰是使经济有效运行的核心。
You can think of them as traffic signals。 And if you don't have them； what you get is a system that doesn't work； or you get chaos。
你可以把它们看作交通信号。如果没有它们，那么你得到的是一个无效的或者混乱的体系。
ALBERT ZLABINGER： Von Mises argued that free markets do it best …… why fool with anything else？
ALBERT ZLABINGER：Von Mises争论说自由市场最有效－为什么还要玩弄其他手段呢？
Onscreen title： Moscow； 1922
字幕标题：莫斯科，1922年
NARRATOR： In Soviet Russia； it seemed as if von Mises's predictions were ing true。 Lenin had abolished what he saw as the chaos of free markets。 The state controlled the economy。 Wages and prices were fixed。 But the great Marxist experiment was in trouble。 Lenin had an economic disaster on his hands。 Soviet Russia was a grim place； haunted by cold； famine； hunger； and death。
旁白：在苏联，Von Mises的预言看起来好像应验了。列宁结束了他所认为的自由市场混乱状态。国家控制了经济。工资和价格是固定的。但是伟大的马克思主义的试验陷入了困境。列宁面临一场经济灾难。苏联成了一个严酷的地方，饱受寒冷、饥荒、饥饿和死亡的折磨。
DANIEL YERGIN： Lenin knew that he needed a different kind of policy。 and he instituted what would bee known as the New Economic Policy。 Lenin says farmers can sell their own goods and own their own land。 He says that small businesses can operate； and you start to get an economic revival。 Well； his rades on the left attacked him viciously for selling out the principles of Bolshevism and Marxism。 And Lenin； who by this time had already had a stroke and was not well； nevertheless pulled himself up on the platform for one of the very last times in his life； and he was still the old Lenin。 He was vitriolic； he was sarcastic。 His critics； he said； were fools； were stupid； because the state； the government； the Bolsheviks would control the overall economy： steel； railroads； coal； the heavy industries …… what he called the "；manding heights"； of the economy。
丹尼尔。尤金：列宁知道他需要推行另一种不同的政策，于是他推行了著名的“新经济政策”。列宁表示农民可以出售自己的产品和土地；小企业可以开工经营。经济开始复苏。但是左派严厉抨击列宁，抨击他背叛了布尔什维主义和马克思主义的原则。列宁那是已经中过一次风，健康状况不佳，但是他仍然进行生命中最后几次演讲；他仍然是那个年迈的列宁，尖刻、讽刺。他说，他的批评者们都是愚蠢的傻子，因为国家、政府和布尔什维克将控制整个经济：钢铁、铁路、煤炭、重工业－他将这些称之为经济的“制高点”。
NARRATOR： Within a year Lenin was dead。 The mourners at Lenin's funeral believed that history was on their side； and in less than 30 years； not only Russia； but Eastern Europe； China …… more than a third of humanity …… would be living according to the economic tenets of Marxist Leninism。
旁白：不到一年列宁就去世了。在列宁的葬礼上，悼念者们坚信他们是顺应历史潮流的。在不到三十年的时间里，不仅俄国，还有东欧和中国－占人类总数的三分之一还要多－都实行了社会主义，按照马克思列宁主义的经济原理来发展经济。
Lenin's successor would tighten the munist Party's iron grip on the manding heights of the economy。 Joseph Stalin introduced central planning。 Under him； the munist Party planned and managed every aspect of the economy。 While munism seemed to be forging ahead； capitalism looked to be doomed。
列宁的继任者加强了在经济制高点行业的铁腕统治。斯大林引入了中央计划。在他的领导下，共产党为经济生活的每个方面编制计划并进行管理。社会似乎正在向共产主义社会迈进，而资本主义看起来注定要灭亡了。
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Chapter 4： A Capitalist Collapse ＇8：48＇
第四章：资本主义的崩溃
Onscreen title： Vienna； 1923
字幕标题：维也纳，1923年
NARRATOR： Germany and Austria were living with the economic consequences of the peace。 Forced to pay unbearable war reparations； the defeated governments simply printed more money。 The result： inflation； more inflation； hyperinflation。 It took a basket full of paper money to go shopping。
旁白：德国和奥地利为和平付出了经济上的代价：战败了的政府完全依靠印刷更多的钞票来支付难以承受的战争赔款，结果造成通货膨胀，更严重的通货膨胀，直到恶性通货膨胀。德国居民购物要带上整整一篮子纸币。
KARL OTTO POHL； President； German Central Bank； 1980…1991： You saw people carrying their money on wheels because you had to pay for a piece of bread billions of reichmarks。
KARL OTTO POHL，1980－1991年德国中央银行总裁：你看到人们用车子来运钞票，因为他们不得不花数十亿德国马克莱买一片面包。
NARRATOR： Hayek； who was working at a statistical research institute； needed 200 pay raises in eight months。 Money was cheaper than wallpaper。 Million…mark notes lit stoves。 Shoes that cost 12 marks in 1913 sold for 32 trillion marks in 1923。 In Hitler's favorite beer keller； a glass of beer cost a billion marks。 Hyperinflation wiped out the savings of the middle class。
旁白：当时正在一个统计学研究机构工作的哈耶克八个月内加了八次薪。钞票比墙纸还便宜；百万马克面值的钞票被用来点炉子。1913年只值12马克的鞋子到了1923年价格已经涨到32万亿马克。在希特勒喜欢的啤酒馆，一杯啤酒要10亿马克。恶性通货膨胀掏空了中产阶级的口袋。
KARL OTTO POHL： And that was one of the reasons for the success of the Nazis； of Hitler。 They got support from these people who lost their fortunes。
KARL OTTO POHL：那还是纳粹党人取得成功的一个原因。他们得到了那些丧失了财富的人的 支持。
NARRATOR： Hayek would always see inflation as an evil that corroded society and undermined democracy。 The fight against inflation became a cornerstone of his economic philosophy。
旁白：哈耶克始终把通货膨胀看成侵蚀社会和破坏民主的恶魔。反对通货膨胀的斗争成为他经济哲学的一个基础。
Onscreen title： New York； The Roaring 1920s
字幕标题：纽约，繁荣的二十年代
DANIEL YERGIN： During the 1920s； while Europe was continuing to suffer the wounds of the first world war； in American cities； at least； it was boom time。 Americans were spending money。 They were dancing。 They were partying。 They were buying cars。 They were buying bathtub gin。 And they were buying stock …… lots of stock。
丹尼尔。尤金：二十年代，欧洲还没有从第一次世界大战造成的创伤中恢复过来，而美国，至少在城市中，则经历了一个繁荣时代。美国人花钱、跳舞、开派对、买车、买私烧锦酒，他们还买股票－大量的股票。
The stock market； the New York Stock Exchange； had bee a national pastime。 The Americans couldn't get enough of it。 And the favorite stock of the day was in these new radio panies。 Radio was like the Internet of the 1920s； an industry that had e from nowhere。 And the number one glamour stock was RCA； which in just a few years went from a dollar and a half a share to 600 a share。 Americans couldn't get enough of it。
股票市场－纽约股票交易所－变成了国家娱乐场所。美国人永不满足地追逐于其中。最受欢迎的股票是那些新的无线电广播公司的股票。无线电就好比是二十年代的因特网－一个新兴行业。最有魔力的股票是RCA，它在短短几年中每股美元涨到了每股600美元。美国人仍不满足。
NARRATOR： It was a classic stock market bubble。 Then； on Black Thursday； October 24； 1929； the bubble burst。 Prices plunged。 The downward spiral proved unstoppable。 Eight hours after the market had closed； the tickertape machines were still tapping out the bad news。 The stock market crash started America's slide into despair。
旁白：这是典型的股票市场泡沫。终于，1929年的10月24日－黑色星期四，泡沫破灭了。股价猛跌，而且下泻之势无法阻止。股票市场关闭八个小时之后，仍然不断有坏消息传出。从股票市场崩溃开始，美国不知不觉陷入了绝望的境地。
SPENCER ECCLES； Salt Lake City Banker： During the '30s here； it was a plete and utter collapse from the peo
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